Tuesday, 12 July 2016

The Six Tasks Facing Theresa May As PM


One of Mrs May's first big tasks as Prime Minister will be negotiating the UK's withdrawal from the European Union.


Just Who Is Theresa May?
Theresa May gets the keys to Downing Street on Wednesday - as Jason Farrell takes a look at what's at the top of her to-do list.
:: Brexit Negotiations
"Brexit means Brexit," said Theresa May. But what does Brexit mean?
Leaving the EU, yes, but it is still not clear whether the referendum result will lead to the UK's exit from the single market or a complete end to free movement of people.
It is not even clear what the status will be of UK nationals currently in the EU and vice-versa.
Despite promising to set up a Brexiteer-led team to unpick our EU relationship, Mrs May takes on the mantle of the UK's chief negotiator in Europe who will be at top table discussions with leaders of the other 27 member states.
I asked Mrs May whether we would remain in the single market and perhaps achieve that by offering a deal on free movement? 
"We need to get the best deal in trade and in goods and services," she said.
"Services are hugely important to us in the United Kingdom.
:: 'Humbled' Theresa May To Be PM On Wednesday
"But I am very clear that the Brexit vote was also a message that we need to bring control into free movement. 
"Free movement cannot continue as it has done up till now."
In other words there is no answer yet to either part of the question.
Video: Referendum Fallout: How Careers Have Been Made And Lost In Two Weeks
:: Reduce Immigration
Of course, the issue of free movement plays into the immigration question.
There is no doubt it was a turning point in the referendum campaign when, in late May, the Office Of National Statistics figures showed net migration at 333,000; the second highest on record.
Bear in mind that 184,000 of those immigrants came from within the EU and those numbers could be significantly cut by ending free movement, but this alone would not reduce immigration to the tens of thousands.
How will the new PM achieve this? Perhaps the bigger question is whether the UK economy would be damaged by a massive drop in young, enthusiastic foreign workers.
:: Theresa May: 'Unflappable' Vicar's Daughter
Or indeed whether an economy damaged by Brexit will reduce the attraction of coming here anyway.
In return, perhaps Britain will get some of its pensioners back from southern Spain.
:: Repair The Economy
The UK has lost its last AAA rating and the pound has dipped to a 30-year low against the dollar.
Optimists such as Andrea Leadsom see a silver lining to all this. But not George Osborne.
Already, the Chancellor has used the referendum result as a reason to renege on his commitment to take the country into a budget surplus by the end of this Parliament.
The "punishment budget" seems to have gone away, but what will Mrs May's Chancellor do to counter the treasury predictions house prices would be hit, the country would fall into recession and families would be £4,300 poorer by 2030? She was in the camp that warned of this impending disaster now she has to stop it.
Video: Theresa May: The View Of The Public And Her Colleagues
:: Unify A Divided Party
The mission to unify the party starts on day one with the appointment of Cabinet.
You might expect prominent Brexiteers such as Michael Gove and Boris Johnson to pick up decent roles, but they could play second fiddle to the Out campaigners who were quicker to back Mrs May's leadership such as Chris Grayling, David Davis or even Liam Fox who has been in backbench exile for a few years.
The party will only unite wholly behind Ms May if she proves her worth in EU negotiations, but her policy on tax, spend and infrastructure projects could also open divisions.
:: Unify A Divided Country
"Make no mistake; the referendum was a vote to leave the European Union. But it was also a vote for serious change," Mrs May told the audience in Birmingham.
Of course, 48% voted to remain and did not want any of the upheaval. Mrs May recognises this rift in the country and in society.
Her speech in Birmingham was rather overshadowed by events when Andrea Leadsom backed out of the leadership race, but it is worth checking back on some interesting points made by the Prime Minster-designate.
:: Theresa May: My Three Key Pledges For The UK
Mrs May acknowledged the economic division between London and the rest of the UK, and all types of inequality in society.
She said: "Right now, if you're born poor, you will die on average nine years earlier than others.
"If you are black, you are treated more harshly by the criminal justice system than if you are white ...
"If you are a woman, you still earn less than a man."
Mrs May says she will tackle corporate pay and tax avoidance and help ordinary workers to get higher pay.
Recognising divisions is one thing - healing them is a big task.
Video: Timeline: How Did We Get Here?
:: Deal With The In Tray Backlog
Infrastructure decisions are building up - and the cranes are waiting to go up. Business leaders are growing impatient.
As well as general commitments to road and house building, the question of HS2 and HS3 hang in the air.
The biggest question though is Heathrow.
Will the Maidenhead MP be willing to accept a bit more noise over her constituency, or will she plump for Gatwick?
Trident renewal also awaits a decision and there is a Junior Doctors dispute to resolve in the NHS.
What is more, Mrs May could face calls for a snap election, a second EU referendum and, perhaps more likely, a second referendum in Scotland.
But these are all things she will be hoping to keep out of the in tray - and that is another job in itself
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